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When too much rain falls for the ground to absorb, it runs downhill, pulled by gravity into streams, creeks and rivers. The rain fills the waterways beyond their banks, and the excess overflows in predictable patterns that follow the terrain.

Governments and waterway managers know what will flood first and who will be threatened when a truly historic rain event takes place.
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The Federal Emergency Management Agency maintains a database of flood zones throughout the country. It maps the regulatory floodways — the places that will flood first and are most dangerous — and the areas that will flood in extreme events.

The Guadalupe River flood was a 1-in-100-year event, meaning it has about a 1% chance of happening in any given year. Extreme flooding is happening more frequently as the world warms and the atmosphere is able to hold more moisture.

Texas has already seen multiple dangerous flooding events this year, and the United States overall saw a record number of flash flood emergencies last year.

More than an entire summer’s worth of rain fell in some spots in central Texas in just a few hours early on the Fourth of July, quickly overwhelming dry soils and creating significant flash flooding. Central Texas is currently home to some of the worst drought in the United States and bone-dry soils flood very quickly.

Camp Mystic is a nondenominational Christian summer camp for girls in western Kerr County. The camp is located at a dangerous confluence of the South Fork Guadalupe River and Cypress Creek, where flood waters converged.
Camp Mystic has two sites, both of which overlap with either the floodway or areas the federal government has determined have a 1% or 0.2% annual chance of flooding.

The camp confirmed that at least 27 campers and counsellors perished in the floods, in a statement on its website. It said it is in communication with local authorities who are continuing to search for “missing girls.�

Ten minutes north on the South Fork is Camp La Junta, a boys camp. Some of Camp La Junta’s property also coincides with areas known to flood, though several of its buildings are located in the lower-risk zone, or outside the flood zones entirely.

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